Chan Ho Park

What looked like a nightmare starting pitching pick up for the Phillies at the beginning of the season turned into one of their most reliable relievers down the stretch. With more than 3 runs difference between his starter and reliever FIP, it’s clear that something about starting – facing the lineup multiple times, losing effectiveness to fatigue, or some other mix of factors – makes him much more suited to relief. Given that upgrading the bullpen will be a big priority this offseason, getting Park back at a reasonable expense should be a priority. Unfortunately, today came this rather discouraging quote from the korea times:

Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Park Chan-ho of South Korea said Tuesday that he wants to play as a starter for a strong team to win the World Series next year.

“I want to be a starter, the hero of the game who takes full responsibility,” Park was quoted as saying by Yonhap News Agency at a press conference in Seoul after returning home two days after the World Series.

“I need a favorable environment to play better. I put priority on a team which has a good atmosphere, gives me a starter role and can advance to the World Series.”

The Phillies can definitely give him a shot at a World Series appearance, but a starting role is not in the cards. Putting aside his abysmal performance as a starter, the rotation is going to be filled out with some combination of Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, J.A. Happ, Joe Blanton, and either Kyle Drabek or some other cheap fifth guy, in all likelihood. Park is very valuable to the Phillies in the bullpen, and entirely without value as a starter.

Rest of the Bullpen

Let’s assume for a moment that the Phillies do manage to bring Chan Ho Park back. That leaves him, Ryan Madson, Brad Lidge, and J.C. Romero as the only locked-in relievers for 2010. Chad Durbin, Jack Taschner, Clay Condrey, and Tyler Walker are all due arbitration. Scott Eyre is a free agent. Of these, Taschner and Walker are probably gone. Ruben has said that re-signing Eyre will depend on the outcome of his impending shoulder surgery to remove a loose body. The team might consider a contract or arbitration for Durbin and Condrey. If they do, that still leaves 2 or so bullpen spots to fill, whether internally or from elsewhere. Sergio Escalona is one internal option. Though he wasn’t given many opportunities last season, he did post a FIP of 3.39 in 13.2 innings. I’d like to see him grab a spot.

Acquiring another top-tier reliever is also preferable, particularly considering how questionable Brad Lidge’s effectiveness is going forward. There isn’t really a bevy of free agent choices, unless you count some possibilities like Joe Beimel, LaTroy Hawkins (who is a Type A), or Jason Isringhausen. Not too appealing. Rafael Betancourt is a very attractive option, but he’s a type A, and is likely to be offered arbitration by the Rockies if they can’t reach a deal. More preferable would be working out a trade for someone like Joakim Soria or Joe Nathan, but their availability and Ruben’s willingness to give up the required pieces remain to be seen.

Third Base

The Phils made the right move by declining Pedro Feliz’s $5 million option. His defense was great, but if you compare his UZR in the last 3 years to the previous seasons, you’ll find it’s on a steady decline. And there is nothing to say about his bat other than that it was a black hole in the lineup. The Phillies may still bring him back if he’ll agree to something cheaper than what his option is worth, but that seems doubtful at this point.

The question remains, then, of who to replace him with. There is an unusually high amount of options in this year’s free agent class. At right, the best candidates are listed with their 2009 offensive numbers and their career UZR-150 – a measure of the runs they’ve saved with their defense at third.

I would be thrilled with Figgins if possible, but Beltre is perfectly acceptable. The former has acceptable defense, but will see a bit of regression on offense this year, having benefited from a BABIP that was 14 points higher than his career average. Beltre was hampered by injury last year, so expect his offensive numbers to improve from what was a down year for him. In addition, he has what is widely regarded as the best third base glove in the majors. He will, in all likelihood, be significantly cheaper than Figgins. Note the ‘x’ for Tejada’s UZR. His name had been thrown around the early discussions about third base options for the Phillies, so I put him in the table before realizing he’s never actually played a game at third. Shortstops can usually transition to third base pretty easily, though. The issue with Tejada is that, for the salary and compensation draft picks he would cost, the Phillies might as well go with Figgins.

Right now it’s tough to say who is in the lead. Jon Heyman tweeted today that the Phillies are “seriously considering” Figgins, but that could mean any thing. This will probably be the highest profile story of the 2009-2010 offseason for the Phillies, and odds are I’ll be updating it frequently.

Starting Rotation

There isn’t really much to talk about on this front. Joe Blanton is due arbitration and will likely be offered that or a modest contract. Hamels, putting aside a few ridiculous rumors, will not be traded, and he will recover in a big way in 2010 when his BABIP and HR/FB ratio normalize to his career marks. Lee and Happ aren’t going anywhere, although you can expect Happ to look a lot more like a 4th starter when his BABIP returns to normal (take a look at my previous post on the subject).

That leaves only the fifth spot in limbo. There’s really no need to make some big moves here. Kyle Drabek, the 2nd ranked Phillies prospect by Baseball America, is on the verge of being major league ready. He may be ready to pitch at the highest level as early as June or July. Until he is, some combination of Kyle Kendrick, Antonio Bastardo, Andrew Carpenter, or some cheap low-level starter available in free agency will be perfectly serviceable, especially considering the talent at the top of the rotation.

That covers the most important of the offseason storylines that will dominate Phillie discourse (and this blog), which is what I wanted to do with this post. If you want something more comprehensive, I recommend taking a look at this post from the Phrontiersman. It is a complete and very reasonable blueprint for a successful offseason.