March 19, 2010

Survey Says . . .

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , — sometimesphylan @ 2:29 pm

First thing’s first, if you haven’t yet read Crashburn Alley’s NL East Preview: Philadelphia Phillies, go check it out. Bill Baer has mashed together a diverse cross-section of Phillie blogger opinions on fifteen crucial questions regarding the Phillies’ 2010 season, as well as some important predictions. And while you’re at it, check out the rest of the series, in which he abducted some of the most knowledgeable bloggers and writers for other NL East teams and interrogated them for valuable intelligence at knife-point. Or something like that. Just read it.

Finally, as I mentioned, here are my complete, unedited answers to his questions. Feel free to tell me what I’m wrong about, or give your own answers to them, in the comments section, and we can get a good discussion rolling.

1. How concerned are you about Cole Hamels going into 2010?

Utterly unconcerned. I might have been worried had his K/9 or BB/9 undergone any significant change last season. Or his HR/9. Or his line drive, groundball, and fly ball percentages. Or any indicator that the man on the mound has control over. I might have even raised an eyebrow if his 4.32 ERA in 2009, the product of some downright abysmal luck, was significantly below league average, but it wasn’t. The battle lines have been pretty firmly drawn on this one, and I do understand that it’s a tough pill to swallow for those on the other side. A 55 point swing in BABIP is disastrous for such an important and high-profile piece of the rotation, and that it came on the tails of a noticeable and oft-ridiculed endorsement tour was even more unfortunate. Capping off his year with a lot of very visible frustration didn’t help things either. None of that jived well with Philadelphia’s constant lust for the hard-knuckled competitor, and now Cole has a rather unfortunate (and I would say undeserved) reputation to shake. Nonetheless, the further we get from 2009, the more optimism I’m seeing bubble up from the cracks. Even the most hard-line traditionalists are acknowledging that, no matter where you place the blame, Cole just had a bad year, and only a bad one by his standards. Pitchers bounce back from these all of the time, and that seems to be the general expectation right now. The positive reports out of spring training about his early start and well-on-pace velocity have only helped that. It’s easy to forget that last year, soreness delayed his spring training and conditioning, and he started the season with a fastball that was 4 to 5 miles per hour slower than usual.

2. Give the Roy Halladay/Cliff Lee mega-trade between the Phillies, Blue Jays, and Mariners a letter grade and explain your grading process.

I give the whole thing a B. The Halladay trade gets an A, the Lee trade gets a D-, and I weighed them 7:3 respectively, due to the former’s importance to the future of the team.

If anyone ever thought that Doc would come without putting a significant dent in the farm system, they were dreaming. Ruben rightly recognized that pressure from ownership was likely mounting on Alex Anthopoulos, and that he would dial down his demands from what J.P. Ricciardi previously sought. I honestly don’t care whether the rumors about Lee being difficult to extend were true; if you can get Roy Halladay at a steep discount for the next several years, and it costs you Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Travis D’Arnaud, you sign that deal as quick as you can. Doc is probably the best pitcher in baseball not named Tim, and he’s moving from the division that averaged the most adjusted equivalent runs in baseball to one that merely beat the NL Central and West (thanks mostly to the Phillies). His highest FIP in the last 9 years was 3.79. The last time he walked more than 2 hitters per 9 innings was 2004. I could go on. You can pretty much pencil Roy in for at least 6 WAR per year until 2014, barring something disastrous, and he left perhaps $100 million on the table. You can’t be shy about your prospects in the face of that kind of value.

On the other hand, the sister trade presents a stark contrast. Cliff Lee for Phillipe Aumont, J.C. Ramirez, and Tyson Gillies is the biggest head scratcher in recent memory. Even if we accept “restocking the farm” on its face, this trade failed to do that. The Phillies traded away the 25th, 29th, and 81st prospects on Baseball America’s top 100 list to get Doc, and received the 93rd and two unranked prospects for Lee. Nobody would expect the return to match what was surrendered for Halladay, but that certainly doesn’t constitute “restocking,” and I do not for a second believe that it was the best possible return for Cliff Lee. I would like to know if Ruben even checked with anyone besides Zdurencik, maybe with teams that have strong farms like the Rays or Red Sox, who would fall all over themselves to acquire a pitcher of Lee’s caliber. If it was a salary dump instead, I have to wonder if Amaro knew the deal was shaping up prior to December 12th. Had he known that, he could have non-tendered Joe Blanton. If he didn’t, Cliff is the obvious target for cost-cutting, but the cutting itself is very questionable. $8 million is nothing to sneeze at, but given that Cliff Lee probably gives you at least 6 WAR for that money, it just makes sense to stretch the purse strings. To suggest that $4 million of that was better spent on Danys Baez (averages .06 WAR over the last 3 years) and Jose Contreras (2.4) is dubious at best. Sure, he also extended some important pieces following the Lee trade, but none that weren’t already on the ledger as arbitration raises.

3. What should the Phillies do about Jayson Werth and his impending free agency?

Everything possible. As a corner outfielder with very good defense (16.5 UZR/150 in 336 career starts in right field), Werth has posted an OPS above .860 in each of the last 3 years. It’s easy to discount the value of corner outfielders, but that kind of production is something you want to hold on to as long as possible. There is no shortage of people who are quick to point out something along the lines of “he’s only had one good year!” This is odd, first and foremost because he had a very good 2007 (.298/.404/.459) and 2008 (.273/.363/.498), albeit in 304 and 482 plate appearances respectively. It’s also odd because it’s not as if Werth came out of nowhere. His great potential was always known — just look at Baseball Prospectus’ reports on his PECOTA card. “[H]e’s big, athletic, and has such potential as a hitter that he may not remain [at catcher],” they wrote in 1999. In 2003 they said he would be “one of those undervalued players that don’t hit for a high batting average, but have strong secondary numbers.” And a year later, “fully capable of putting up a big offensive season that would make him a very rich man.” Sound familiar? Werth was far from a dark horse; he was just hampered by wrist injuries for the greater part of 6 years, in the middle of his development.

Werth has tremendous patience at the plate, and that’s not a skill that just fades away. He led the MLB in pitches per plate appearance last season with 4.51, and his 13.5% walk rate led qualified Phillie hitters. This will help him remain productive even in times when his power fluctuates. It means he will age much more gracefully than, say, a more one-dimensional power hitter. Oh, and his power is not half bad either – an ISO over .220 in each of the last two years, with SLG sitting right around .500. The Phillies should feel confident giving him a long term deal for a big pile of cash, and they shouldn’t flinch at the roster moves they may have to make to facilitate it. Trading Ryan Howard is something that will have to be considered, as has been discussed in the past on Crashburn Alley, and from a long-term perspective it’s probably the right play. With Werth playing to his potential last year, they posted nearly identical WARs. They’re only 6 months apart in age, and as I coyly implied a few sentences ago, Werth’s athleticism and plate patience make him less prone to steep decline. They both have a platoon split, but Werth’s is less drastic – 274 points of OPS to Howard’s 433 in 2009 – and Jayson hits better than the league average right-hander does against right handed pitching. The equivalent cannot be said for Howard. That makes for much less of a hole in the lineup during an adverse match-up. Ryan’s skillset is overvalued among some GMs, so the Phillies could potentially get a great package in return if Ruben plays it properly. Howard’s tremendous power will be missed, but something like moving Raul Ibanez to first and putting Domonic Brown in left, if he is ready, would ensure minimal loss of value for the Phillies. Keeping both Howard and Werth is just not an option, barring a massive expansion of the payroll, so why not keep the surer (and probably cheaper) bet going forward?

4. Jimmy Rollins says he wants to hit .300, accrue 200 hits, score 150 runs, steal 50 bases, and commit 3 or fewer errors. Give us your AVG, H, R, SB, and E predictions for Rollins in 2010.

Assuming his 2010 BABIP and plate appearances are around his career average, I’ll say a .272 average and 173 hits for Rollins. Considering the lineup he is in, and the rate at which he scores runs for the last 5 years, I’ll predict 118 runs scored. Given his commitment to stealing a career high amount of bases, I’ll predict 45 for him, but, for the second year in a row, he will slip below his career 83% success rate; if you want to steal more bases, you’ll have to make more unwise attempts. Errors depend far too much on the discretion of the scorekeeper for me to reliably predict them, but taking into account his career figures, with an emphasis on the last 5 years, I’ll go with 9 errors. I wish he would set himself an OBP goal.

5. Is the duo of Ryan Madson and Danys Baez reliable back-up for ailing closer Brad Lidge?

Madson yes, Baez no. Ryan Madson had a fantastic 2009 season. 9.08 K/9, 2.56 BB/9, 0.81 HR/9 for a 3.23 FIP. A 3.26 ERA in 77 and 1/3 innings pitched. Why is this never talked about? Because of some high profile blown saves. Jerome Holtzman strikes again. This is an argument that was waged every day during Lidge’s struggles, and one that will continue in perpetuity. Sufficient to say, suggesting that Ryan Madson “doesn’t have the makeup” to be a closer is at once a bold piece of armchair psychology and a curious assertion of some intangible closer mystique. Yes, he blew some saves. But what does that really measure? A reliever can enter the game in the 9th inning with nobody on base, a 3 run lead, and 3 outs to get, and be credited with a save as long as he doesn’t blow the lead. Do you award him magical clutch points for that? Meanwhile, take Madson’s 10 highest leverage outings in 2009, as measured by their average leverage index, and look at what he did: 1 earned run in 10 innings with 9 strikeouts, 5 walks, and no home runs allowed. That’s the kind of small sample factoid that I usually wouldn’t cite, but it’s certainly better than trying to evaluate a guy using saves, and it just doesn’t harmonize with the old “Madson is unclutch” tune. In terms of being a Brad Lidge back-up, I’d rather Madson not be the closer, simply because of the senseless rigidity of the role; with all of the low leverage “save opportunities” closers get, it would be a misappropriation of his talent. In a perfect world, the Phillies would employ a flexible leveraging of their bullpen talent (especially since it is scarce this year), but there is not a chance Charlie will break with the traditional reliever roles, so if he has to put someone in Lidge’s slot, Madson it’ll be.

Baez is another move I just don’t understand. He had a good year in 2005. He actually managed a league-average ERA (4.02) last season despite an unimpressive FIP (4.56), but that was thanks to a BABIP that as 41 points below his career mark. He’s only one year removed from elbow surgery that kept him off the mound for the entire season. He’s only two years removed from a 59 and 2/3rds innings, 6.44 ERA (6.30 FIP) performance. His K/9 has been steadily sinking since 2003. This is the kind of player you would give a minor league deal, to see if he can put it back together and become a contributor. Instead, Amaro gave him a two year deal totaling $5.25 million, after watching guys like Darren Oliver sign elsewhere. I just don’t see where the demand for Baez was that warranted an offer like that. I will be surprised if Baez brings much to the table in 2010, and I definitely do not consider him “Lidge insurance,” which is a talking point that has somehow caught on.

6. Which team in the NL East worries you the most?

Barring injuries, I consider the Phillies a lock for the NL East, but I suspect Atlanta is the team that will make it interesting down the stretch. If you fancy BP’s third order wins, the 2009 Braves actually edged out the Phillies in the NL East, the latter outplaying their third order record by almost 8 games. The division wasn’t necessarily as well in hand as it may have appeared. The Braves have made some improvements for 2010, as well. Troy Glaus, if he stays healthy, could post an .800 OPS at first. Eric Hinske is a bench upgrade. Billy Wagner was a great bullpen addition. Chipper Jones, also barring health issues, should rebound from a down 2009. Yunel Escobar had an impressive 4 win season and is likely to do it again. And then, of course, there is Heyward. I know it’s easy to get tired of the hype, but there is a convincing consensus among scouts on this one, and the guy hit .323/.408/.555 at 3 minor league levels last year. Baseball Prospectus’ regular minor league translation for Heyward at 2009 season’s end had him hitting .310/.367/.536, which I’m fairly skeptical of, but it certainly suggests that he is ready to make a serious contribution immediately in 2010. He’s adjusted quickly to each promotion, and if he does the same when he reaches the big leagues, it immediately transforms a lineup that is otherwise solid with question marks.

Their rotation is probably the deepest in the division, with caveats. They probably will not miss Vasquez, unless his aberrant 2009 is something he’ll be able to replicate with the Yankees. Tim Hudson has to stay healthy. In 42 1/3 innings pitched at the end of 2009, he seemed to have recovered well from his 2008 Tommy John procedure, especially taking into account his unfavorable BABIP. Tommy Hanson can expect a slight regression, judging from his BABIP and LOB%, but his K/BB was solid, and if he mixes in more of that slider and perhaps improves his fastball command he’s going to join Heyward on the list of Braves that make me fear the future (OK, fine, he’s already on that list). He’s a front of the rotation talent. I think Derek Lowe will bounce back from a year that was not as bad as it seemed – FIP had him pegged at 4.06, xFIP at 4.19, and his BABIP and LOB% should return to normal. I was surprised when Mets blogger Andy Tworischuk pointed out to me that Jair Jurrjens’ 2009 peripherals were freakishly similar to J.A. Happ’s. He could be in for a disappointing 2010 if he doesn’t keep the magic going.

If all of these pieces fall right into place for the Braves, I think they could be in the hunt at the end of September, but it all hinges on some players with significant health concerns, and what they can get out of Jason Heyward.

7. Teams have been approaching Ryan Howard with a steady diet of left-handed pitching and breaking balls and by employing the shift on the right side of the field. Will this trend continue in 2010, or will Howard make the appropriate adjustments?

I’m always hesitant to draw conclusions from spring training, considering the talent pool is still muddled with minor leaguers and fringe reclamations. And even though he’s only had 32 at bats, I’ve been encouraged to see that Ryan Howard has been hitting more opposite field line drives. It could just be a fluke, but if it’s not, it will help him beat the super shift a lot more often, and eventually keep teams honest with their defensive alignments. As far as breaking balls go, it’s clearly on the coaching staff’s radar after Howard, as Tom Verducci recently reported, saw the most breaking balls of any hitter by a wide margin in 2009. Todd Zolecki posted a story at the Zo Zone that featured some auspicious quotes from Charlie Manuel and Milt Thompson; supposedly they are giving Howard entire pitching machine sessions with breaking ball after breaking ball, and, I was pleased to hear, emphasizing patience against them, advising he waits for the right pitch. Whether this is really that teachable at this point in his career, and whether these kinds of stories are any more reliable than the “best shape of his life” genre of spring training minutiae, remains to be seen. I’m going to break one of my own rules here and make an anecdotal “effort” observation: though I am quick to point out his weaknesses, the continued weight loss and fielding practice makes it seem that Howard is genuinely dedicated to improving his game wherever he can, which gives me hope for this latest effort.

The platoon split, though, is downright awful, and I’m skeptical that it can be fixed this late into his career. Dave Allen from Fangraphs authored a great analysis of this using pitch f/x data last October. The conclusion: Howard manages not to swing and miss on inside pitches from southpaws, but can’t generate any power on them. On outside pitches, he can generate power, but whiffs at an extraordinary rate. The results: In 2009, he hit .207/.298/.356 against left handed pitchers. In terms of OPS, that’s 55% below his overall production, and 14% below the league average left handed batter versus left handed pitching. His career figures bear out a similar disparity. This is going to sound brash, but he’s a platoon hitter that will never be platooned. At the very least, Charlie could reduce his number of adverse match-up plate appearances by batting him eighth against left handed starters, but that’s another thing that will never happen. It’s maddeningly easy to exploit in the late innings. If Jim Tracy had the good sense to do so in the 2009 NLDS, the Phillies would likely have headed back to Philadelphia for game 5.

8. Placido Polanco is making the switch from second base to third base. How good will he be defensively?

People who have read my prior opinions on this are going to double-take at this response. Right after this signing, I had a lot of gloom and doom visions of Polanco stumbling around the left side of the infield, muffing sharp grounders and blowing routine throws. My initial impressions were no doubt colored by my irritation at Ruben Amaro giving him a 3 year deal, and further by the fact that “hasn’t played the position since 2005″ just sounds really bad. The more I think about it though, the more my mind is at ease. Polly has been a very good second baseman, posting a career 10.0 UZR/150 at the position, as well as a +29 Plus/Minus rating from 2006-2008, good for a fourth place tie. Though he’s put in 692 less games at third base, he has a career 9.9 UZR/150 at the position. All of this tells me that he has the range and reflexes to play third, particularly if we remember the defensive spectrum. It depends on his arm, and the toll that aging takes on his footwork. With the usual caveats about spring training evaluations, the early indications are that his arm will hold up at the position, and, despite a probable fluke of a knee injury, that Father Time hasn’t stunted his ability to translate his second base range. He may end up just being average at the position, but I don’t see Polanco’s third base defense being a liability for the Phillies.

9. Who should win the #5 spot, Jamie Moyer or Kyle Kendrick?

Call it Rich Dubee Stockholm Syndrome, but I’m actually going to take Moyer, on the shortest of short leashes. And I wouldn’t use the word “win.” There is no doubt that in conditioning and spring training appearances, Kendrick has well out-paced Moyer. Kendrick has been solid, although he’s been heavy on the flyball outs and light on the strike outs, which doesn’t bode well for the type of pitcher that he is. Moyer, on the other hand, has been getting roughed up in B-team split squad outings. I feel dirty typing this, but given the fact that Jamie is taking home $6.5 million either way, how about the Phillies give him 2 regular season starts to see where he is at, and have Kendrick ready to take over if Moyer ends up falling apart? This prevents Moyer from putting a significant dent in the regular season outcome, but allows the Phillies to assess whether they have a hope of recovering some production for their money. I anticipate that this idea would be a total failure, and that Kendrick would be rounding out the rotation by late April, but it’s merely a way to ensure the Phillies don’t write off millions of dollars before they have to.

10. The bench was great in 2008 but disappointing last year. Will the additions of Brian Schneider, Ross Gload, and Ramon Castro help?

I think, for the most part, that Amaro did a good job upgrading the bench for the 2010 season. In 2008, the Phillie bench managed a .253/.308/.400 line with 33 home runs, for a .708 OPS. That production dropped to .232/.307/.385 with 25 home runs for a .692 OPS in 2009. The weaker bench meant that it carried 370 less plate appearances in 2009, increasing the burden on the already heavily-used starters. Schneider and Gload are both likely to OBP over .300, which to my mind makes them upgrades for the bench. Juan Castro I am less than thrilled with. His .286 wOBA in 2009 was his highest since 2003, aided in no small part by a BABIP that was 80 points over his career mark. Sure, he’s a defensive replacement, but that won’t stop Charlie from giving him way too many plate appearances — see exhibit A, Eric Bruntlett. The notion that it does not matter how abysmal your defensive replacements’ bats are leads to some really silly personnel decisions. I wouldn’t mind seeing Wilson Valdez, whom Amaro signed to a minor league deal, compete for Castro’s spot, but it won’t happen. Count on Dobbs to bounce back from a rough 2009, and I think Mayberry has a good chance to have a mini-breakout year, if Charlie gives him serious opportunities. He has a small sample size in 2009 from which to judge (60 plate appearances), but he flashed some major power, with a .263 ISO and a .474 SLG. If he just develops more patience, I think he’ll be a big contributor.

11. Will J.A. Happ come close to his 2.93 ERA from 2009?

Nope. Happ’s legendary BABIP voodoo is well documented, and the subject of a lot of heated arguments during and after the 2009 season. .270 was his final overall BABIP, but when you really dig into the splits, it gets downright baffling. His BABIP with any runners on base was .226. With runners in scoring position, it was .181. With runners on first and second, it was .147. With the bases loaded, .091. The league average BABIP for all of those splits are all within 10 points of .300. In the situations where Happ was at the greatest risk of surrendering runs, he had an incredible amount of luck on his side. That’s how he tallied up an 85.2% LOB mark, and it’s also how he managed a 2.93 ERA when his peripherals compute to a 4.49 xFIP, and neither are sustainable.

Of course, pointing out that luck plays a big part in baseball, and that Happ will not be a perennial Cy Young contender, has earned stat-minded writers an undue share of ire from certain corners of the internet, as if they’re suggesting Happ will flame out Kyle Kendrick style. On the contrary, after all the swamp gas evaporates, the planets re-align, and Happ’s numbers begin to fit more closely with his peripherals, I expect he’ll be a solid fourth starter — perhaps posting an ERA in the neighborhood of 4.30 — and what team doesn’t need one of those?

12. The Phillies essentially swapped Chan Ho Park for Jose Contreras. Thumbs up or thumbs down and why?

Thumbs pointed firmly sideways. Considering it from this perspective, it seems like a push to me. It’s not because I think Contreras will match Park’s exceptional 2009 relief performance. By the raw FIP formula, Park posted a 2.10 FIP in 50 innings of relief, surrendering not a single home run, and that’s just not realistic for Contreras (nor, perhaps, for Park going forward). But Contreras has only pitched 27 and 2/3rds innings of relief in his career, and there is some evidence that he will be substantially more effective when used only as a reliever: in his career, opposing hitters have tallied an OPS of .688 in Jose’s first 25 pitches, a figure that balloons to .763 in pitches 26-50, and .764 in pitches 51-75. Likewise, hitters have posted an OPS of .692 when first facing Contreras in a game, rising to .773 in their second plate appearance against him. It’s not unreasonable to think he’ll be a solid bullpen piece. Also factoring into this is the rather confusing chain of events which landed Park on the Yankees — he signed for less money than the Phillies offered him, on a team where he also has no prayer of starting, and eventually stated that he would have preferred to stay in Philadelphia. I cannot place the blame on the front office for that kind of schizophrenia.

13. Which Phillie(s) is/are we most likely to see dealt by the July 31 trading deadline?

I don’t want it to happen, and I don’t think that it’s particularly likely, but I’ll have to say Jayson Werth. It’s no secret that he is due a big pay day after the 2010 season, and the assumption at the moment is that the Phillies and their already corpulent payroll will have trouble meeting his demands. With Ben Francisco and John Mayberry available to fill-in at right field, and Domonic Brown the presumptive heir to the position in 2011, the Phillies could try to fetch some significant relief help with Werth, the bullpen being their biggest weakness. The right call, though, is for the Phillies to hold their cards and enjoy the entirety of Werth’s value, even if they are ultimately unable to extend him, and I think that is what will happen. The previously discussed notion of a Ryan Howard trade to clear salary for extending Jayson is a tempting thought exercise, but probably also a daydream. Dumping Ibanez prior to the deadline for the same purpose would be ideal, but his contract renders him impossible for the Phillies to move without eating money. Were Kyle Drabek still a Phillie, I might peg J.A. Happ for a deadline deal, but not now, with no starting pitching depth waiting in the wings.

14. The Phillies have had one of baseball’s best defenses for several years running according to most metrics. Does this trend continue?

It will still be one of baseball’s best, but it won’t match the caliber of 2009. The Phillies have only replaced one starter — Placido Polanco taking over third base from Pedro Feliz. That’s going to be a significant downgrade. As I mentioned, I’m warming to the idea that Polanco will be a serviceable third baseman, but Feliz was a great defender, with a career 15.5 UZR/150 at the position, and coming in right behind Adrian Beltre on the Plus/Minus leaderboards with a +55 rating from 2006-2008. I also expect Raul Ibanez’s UZR to regress, considering how wildly out of sorts it was last year with his career numbers — he posted a 10.7 UZR/150 compared to a career -3.2 mark in left, and a -41 Plus/Minus rating from 2006-2008. The shorter left field wall may have helped him, but not that much. I’m chalking it up to UZR’s questionable reliability in single season samples.

15. What will the team get from Domonic Brown this season?

Ideally, nothing beyond a productive September call-up after the minor league season ends. There is no starting spot available for him on the major league squad, and in any case he is much better served getting as many plate appearances as possible in the minors. There, he can work on further developing his power (which, if spring training is any indication, is pretty far along as it is), and refining his outfield defense, which, by all accounts, is still pretty raw. At this stage in his development, there is absolutely no reason to rush him along just so he can admire the scenery in big league dugouts. If all goes well, he’ll be knocking down the door to majors in 2011, and one way or another the outfield situation will look quite a bit different then.

Predictions

Phillies W-L, place in division: 95-67, 1st in NL East

Playoffs: There is no reason they can’t advance just as far as they did last year, and right now that’s where I have them. But there is a good chance they will once again have to overcome a massively talented Yankee team.

Team MVP: Chase Utley, and it won’t be close.

Team Cy Young: Roy Halladay, and he also has a good shot at the
league Cy Young.

Biggest Rookie Contributor: Scott Mathieson. I considered putting Mayberry here as well, as he still qualifies, but since you used the term “contributor,” I weighed in the fact that the bullpen will be an uphill battle in 2010, and Mathieson being able to make some quality appearances would be the best possible contribution.

Breakout player: John Mayberry, Jr.

Under-the-radar: Tie – Ryan Madson (again) and Ben Francisco

Resurrection

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: — sometimesphylan @ 4:20 am

For the second time in the last 6 months, I have to apologize for an extended layover. If you’ve been following me on Twitter, though, you know that I haven’t been able to shut the hell up about the Phillies (and I never will). Also, you know that I curse a lot. Regardless, with the regular season so tantalizingly close, a Fire Ruben Amaro resurrection is at hand. And it begins with a roundtable discussion over at one of my favorite Phillies blogs, Crashburn Alley. Bill Baer posed what I consider to be the 15 most important questions facing the Phillies entering the 2010 season, to 16 excellent Phillie bloggers, and you can see the results here.

Needless to say, answers had to be picked and truncated for the sake of making a reasonably sized post. Since the questions are so comprehensive, I will post my answers to all of them in their entirety within the hour. In the meantime, please read and enjoy the composite opinions of some darn good Phillies bloggers. Also coming in the next week: new posts on the topic of Ryan Howard and constructing the Phillies’ lineup. Stay tuned!

December 15, 2009

The Halladay Deal

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , , , — sometimesphylan @ 6:46 pm

You’ve heard by now that the Phillies are in the midst of a three team trade that would bring Roy Halladay to Philadelphia and send Cliff Lee to Seattle, among other things. The specifics have changed about thirty times since the news first broke yesterday morning, so instead of going through how the whole thing evolved, here is the latest iteration, as currently reported, which will probably (hopefully) be the last:

PHI receives Roy Halladay (TOR), Philippe Aumont (SEA), Tyson Gillies (SEA), and Juan Ramirez (SEA), $6 MM cash via TOR
SEA receives Cliff Lee (PHI)
TOR receives Kyle Drabek (PHI), Michael Taylor (PHI), and Travis D’Arnaud (PHI).

Additionally, once the deal is done, Toronto will trade Michael Taylor to Oakland for third base prospect Brett Wallace.

A quick rundown on the prospects involved:

Kyle Drabek is ranked by Baseball America as the second best prospect in the Phillies organization, with the best curveball in the farm system. He has a fastball in the mid to high 90s and a plus changeup. Coming off of Tommy John surgery in the 2009 season, he pitched 61 2/3rds innings in advanced A ball, striking out 10.8 hitters per 9 innings and allowing no home runs, for a 1.82 FIP. He was then promoted to AA Reading where he struggled to adjust a bit, but ended up with a respectable 3.83 FIP. It is generally agreed upon that his best case scenario projection is a number two starter.

Michael Taylor is ranked by Baseball America as the third best prospect in the Phillies organization, and the best power hitter. The outfielder is either ready or nearly ready for a major league stint, and hit .333/.408/.569 in 363 plate appearances at Reading before being promoted to the AAA Iron Pigs and hitting .282/.359/.491. He could be considered a more polished version of Phillies number one prospect Domonic Brown, but with a lower ceiling of potential.

Travis D’Arnaud is ranked by Baseball America as the fourth best prospect in the Phillies organization, and the best defensive catcher in the system. With the departure of Lou Marson to Cleveland last July, D’Arnaud was generally considered to be the catcher of the future for the Phillies. That said, he is a ways off from ML readiness. After promising seasons in 2007 and 2008, D’Arnaud struggled in A ball last year, hitting only .255/.319/.419, although this is partially attributable to a nearly 50 point dip in BABIP. Nonetheless, D’Arnaud promises to remain behind the plate and develop into, at the very least, a serviceable everyday catcher.

Philippe Aumont is a promising 20 year old pitcher in the Mariners system (Baseball America has not released this year’s top 10 prospect rankings for the Mariners yet). Due to health and durability concerns, he’s been limited in his innings so far and most likely projects only as a reliever now. In 17 2/3rds innings at AA, Aumont posted an impressive 12.23 K/9, but a worrisome 5.6 BB/9. The sample size of those numbers, though, is questionable. In 33 1/3 innings at advanced A ball, Aumont posted a 3.53 FIP, with 9.45 K/9 and 3.24 BB/9.

Tyson Gillies is a slap-hitting outfielder with no power to speak of, and is widely regarded as the fastest player in professional baseball. In 593 plate appearances at advanced A ball in 2009, Gillies batted an impressive .341/.430/.486, and stole 44 bases (though he was caught stealing 19 times, for a 70% success rate). Gillies plays excellent outfield defense, and is also notable for being one of the only players in professional baseball who is almost completely deaf.

Juan Ramirez is a 21 year old pitcher on the Mariners advanced A squad, who was projected in 2008 as a possible number 2 starter as a best case scenario. His stock has fallen somewhat since then, but he still has the potential to be an effective starter. He did, however, have a fairly lackluster 2009, posting a 4.76 FIP in 142 1/3 innings.

So that should give you an idea of what exactly is going where. Now how good of a deal is it? As you may have noticed when I detailed the exchanges, it isn’t really a “three team trade.” It started out as one, but now it is essentially a Jays-Phillies swap of Roy Halladay for prospects, and a Phillies-Mariners swap of Cliff Lee for prospects. The former I love, the latter I am less than crazy about.

Halladay first. Drabek, Taylor and D’Arnaud for Halladay is a deal that I personally would make any day of the week. Yes, it is the second-through-fourth best prospects in the Phillies’ system, but it’s clear that Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos dialed down the demands that his predecessor made last July; most importantly, the Phillies did not have to offer up Domonic Brown, the most daydream-worthy asset in their system right now. And the return is Roy Halladay, who has consistently put up elite numbers in the AL East, the most difficult offensive environment you can find in the MLB. Now he’s coming to the NL, and in guys like Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabbathia, we’ve seen what happens when good AL pitchers make that move. What’s more, thanks to his affinity for the Philadelphia organization, and the close proximity of his off-season residence to the Phils’ spring training facility in Clearwater, Halladay is signing, as part of the deal, a 3 to 5 year extension at about $20 million per year. That’s bargain basement value for an elite front of the rotation talent. By all reports, Cliff Lee was seeking a deal on the order of C.C. Sabathia’s 7 year, $161 MM blockbuster that he signed with the Yankees in 2009, which priced him right out of the Phillies’ range. So Ruben went and upgraded (believe it or not) from Cliff Lee to a better pitcher who would sign long term.

What I don’t so much understand is the Cliff Lee to the Mariners side of things. Originally it seemed that that the purpose of Seattle’s involvement was to extract prospects that would be sent to Toronto to prevent the Phillies from making any big withdrawals from their farm system. Now that it is become clear that there is no Seattle-Toronto interaction, and the Phillies are essentially trading Cliff Lee for Aumont, Gillies, and Ramirez, it is apparent that a) that’s not a great return for Cliff Lee and b) it doesn’t seem necessary to deal Lee in the first place. Halladay is coming to Philadelphia for a good set of prospects from the Phillies, which, as I said, I’m fine with. So with that happening completely independent of the Mariners, there can only be a few reasons why the Lee deal is even going down at all.

The first would be payroll. Even though the Phillies are getting $6 MM from Toronto in the Halladay deal, bringing his net expense down to around $9 million, it is possible the ownership would not approve the raise in payroll that would result from having both Lee and Halladay on the team. This seems unlikely, though. Cliff Lee is only making $9 million this year. Assuming Amaro was aware of this sort of deal shaping up back on December 12th, he could have non-tendered Joe Blanton, freeing up what would probably be about $7 million that Big Joe would make in arbitration. He could’ve done the same with Chad Durbin, freeing up around $2 million. But besides this, is an added $9 million dollars of payroll really that much of an issue to a team like the Phillies right now? Coming off of a World Series championship, two NL pennants, and record-setting attendance at Citizens Bank Park? Merchandise sales through the roof? At the very least, is it important enough to be forced into taking a Lee deal that strongly favors the Mariners? Certainly Lee cannot be extended at his asking price, but if he’s only making $9 million, why not let him pitch in red pinstripes in 2010, let him walk in free agency, and take the compensatory draft picks the Phillies would receive with the departure of a Type A free agent?

The other reason could be that Amaro wanted to replenish the farm system with young talent after dealing three promising prospects to the Jays. If that is the case, he didn’t really accomplish the mission. Putting aside the fact that the three Seattle prospects the Phillies are receiving are not sufficient return for Cliff Lee, they also don’t stack up against the prospects surrendered for Halladay. Neither Aumont nor Ramirez match Drabek’s ceiling and progress, and there is nothing close to a Michael Taylor coming from Seattle (this is less important with the Phillies retaining Dominic Brown, but the point remains).

Amaro’s best excuses would be a very stern warning from ownership about the payroll, or the desire to acquire something else of value with the money saved by dealing Lee. If it really is the former, we will never know about it. If it is the latter, we can be sure a quality bullpen piece is the next priority. This all remains to be seen. On the whole, though, I would rather this trade happen than not. The value of Halladay at the price the Phillies are paying well overrides any reservations I have about the Lee deal. Welcome to Philly, Doc.

December 1, 2009

Phils sign Schneider, bench begins to take shape

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , — sometimesphylan @ 7:59 pm

The Phillies have agreed to, pending physical, a 2 year, $2.75 million contract in which he will make $1.25 million in 2010 and $1.5 million in 2011. In 2009, Schneider managed only a .218/.292/.335 line with 3 home runs in 194 plate appearances. It was a down year in the luck department, though, as he saw his BABIP dip to .228, down from a career average of .278. When that regresses, we can hopefully expect him to post something closer to his 2008 performance – .257/.339/.367. When Driveline Mechanics attempted to construct a combined statistic for assessing catcher value (combining pitch blocking, steal attempts, throwing errors, and fielding errors), they found Schneider to be the 12th most valuable among major league backstops. All in all, a pretty standard signing for the backup catcher spot. Certainly an improvement over both Paul Bako and Paul Hoover. A one year deal certainly would have been preferable, but at $1.5 million in 2011 it’s not exactly going to cripple the team if Schneider falls off a cliff.

Meanwhile, as I mentioned in my previous post, the Phillies signed DeWayne Wise and Wilson Valdez to minor league contracts. Both are options worth exploring. You probably know DeWayne Wise as the savior of Mark Buehrle’s perfect game last year, making a brilliant leaping catch off the wall in the 9th to prevent a home run. That’s sort of the whole story on him. He’s quite good defensively – 11.7 career UZR/150 in the outfield – but has no bat. In 153 plate appearances in 2009, he “hit” .225/.262/.366. He will likely spend 2009 in AAA trying to figure out how to get on base, and get a September call up for some defensive depth on the bench. Wilson Valdez is probably the guy that should’ve gotten Juan Castro’s contract. He’s been very good at shortstop in his career, compiling a 15.6 career UZR/150 (although the sample size is not quite where it should be for UZR to be totally reliable). Last year at the plate he managed a .256/.326/.337 line. Yes, that is an OBP over .300. Why can’t he be our backup middle infielder?

One last thing to keep your eye on: the Tigers declined to offer arbitration to Placido Polanco. This probably makes him more appealing to the Phillies, who now would not have to give the Tigers a first round draft pick as compensation for losing a Type A free agent were they to sign him. I’m personally hoping that Rube doesn’t jump at the opportunity; as I said in my offseason priorities post, Beltre is the best bang for the Phillies’ dollar, an elite defender, and DeRosa and Polanco, while an upgrade over Feliz, won’t provide a whole lot of value. Check back at the end of the day when the Phillies finalize their list of players to offer arbitration. Jayson Stark believes the Phillies will not offer arbitration to either Chan Ho Park or Scott Eyre.

November 25, 2009

Good News and Bad News

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , — sometimesphylan @ 10:05 pm

Bad news first: The Phillies and utility middle infielder Juan Castro have agreed to a deal, pending a physical. The deal is reported to be worth less than $1 million. Todd Zolecki simply labeled him “Bruntlett’s replacement,” and, frankly, he’s a little too Bruntlett-y for me. Castro’s career line is .230/.270/.332. In 15 MLB seasons, he has never posted an OPS+ higher than 84 (remember, 100 is league average). He has had an OBP over .300 only twice. One of those seasons has a 5 plate appearance sample size, and the other was 2009, a career year for Castro, in which he posted a .277/.311/.339 line with one home run. Yes, I said career year. Ruben Amaro no doubt hopes Castro will repeat that production in 2010, on the cheap. What Amaro may not have noticed is that Castro’s 2009 came with a .345 BABIP, a full 80 points above his career average. His line drive percentage was significantly higher than in previous seasons, so some of that is attributable to simply hitting the ball harder, but it would be ridiculous to expect him to get that lucky again. He’s going to regress.

There’s also a deeper front office philosophy at work here, the same philosophy that resulted in Eric Bruntlett. It’s the notion that it does not matter in the slightest how bad your backup middle infielder’s bat is, because he is primarily a defensive replacement. I don’t have a problem with defense-oriented bench players, but if you’re a front office, you do need to make sure that their defense actually makes up for their total lack of offensive contribution. Castro has been good at second and short throughout his career – UZRs of 13.5 and 6.1, respectively. If you look at the last three years, there are some indications that his defense is declining with age, but the sample sizes are not high enough for UZR to be reliable. I can tell you this: If Castro’s offense makes the expected regression in 2010, and his fielding remains about the same or he loses a step to old age, he will not be above replacement level. Don’t think that his status as a defensive replacement will prevent him from getting enough plate appearances to bottom out his value either. He will certainly be used to give Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley days off, and will see pinch hit opportunities when Charlie’s options are limited. Just ask Eric Bruntlett, who saw the plate 118 times in 2009 and 238 times in 2008.

Player AVG OBP SLG OPS+
Alex Cora .251 .320 .310 69
Craig Counsell .285 .357 .408 105
Jerry Hairston Jr. .251 .315 .394 86
Nick Green .236 .303 .366 71
Mark Loretta .232 .309 .276 60
Juan Uribe .289 .329 .495 111
Adam Everett .238 .288 .325 59
Chris Gomez .273 .322 .333 76
John McDonald .258 .271 .384 72

There are more middle infielder free agents that could be signed relatively cheaply. In fact, here is a chart full of them. These players all made $2 million or less in 2009. Yes, some of them would want raises in 2010. And yes, some of them have simply average or even below average defense. But most have some competence at the plate. Some of them can even post an OBP over .300! (Did I mention that Castro has done that only twice? I’m pretty sure I did.) For most of them, when you combine their bat and their glove, you will find they are more valuable than Juan Castro. And that is the point – you don’t need to forget about any kind of offensive ability and find an elite defender for your backup middle infielder. You just need to be sure that the combined value of his offense and defense is worth more than replacement level. I suspect this will not be the case for Juan Castro, but for Ruben’s sake and ours, let’s hope that it is.

The Good News

Word comes via MLB Trade Rumors that the Phillies are indeed going after Adrian Beltre to fill the third base position. As I wrote in my offseason priorities post, Beltre is probably the best third base option for the Phils. He is possibly the best defensive third basemen in the game, and his offense is likely to be rebound from an injury-hampered 2009. He is a clear upgrade over Pedro Feliz, and could be had for a reasonable salary. It would behoove Rube not to be shy in doling out a significant amount of those newly-minted Citizens Bank Park greenbacks to get him; he is a wise investment.

Also, as I am writing this, news has arrived that Phillies have signed Wilson Valdez and DeWayne Wise. The 2010 bench is taking shape. I’ll post some thoughts on that later.

November 17, 2009

Backup Backstop Background

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , — sometimesphylan @ 2:26 am

One of the components in building a new Phillies bench in the 2009-10 offseason is a new backup catcher. Lou Marson was sent to the Indians last July in the Cliff Lee deal, Chris Coste was waived and picked up by the Astros, and the two most promising catchers in the Phillies system, Travis D’Arnaud and Sebastian Valle, are a long way off.

Player 2009 Career
PA AVG OBP SLG OPS+ AVG OBP SLG
Miguel Olivo 416 .249 .292 .490 103 .243 .278 .423
Gregg Zaun 296 .260 .345 .416 99 .251 .344 .388
Henry Blanco 232 .235 .320 .382 96 .228 .292 .366
Chad Moeller 100 .258 .313 .438 95 .226 .228 .351
Brad Ausmus 107 .295 .343 .368 93 .252 .325 .344
Javier Valentin* 144 .256 .326 .411 91 .251 .310 .402
Yorvit Torrealba 242 .291 .351 .380 87 .255 .315 .390
Ramon Castro 171 .219 .292 .406 81 .233 .308 .415
Josh Bard 301 .230 .293 .361 73 .259 .326 .389
Ivan Rodriguez 448 .249 .280 .384 73 .299 .336 .471
Paul Bako 130 .224 .308 .336 69 .231 .305 .318
Brian Schneider 194 .218 .292 .335 67 .251 .323 .374
Jason LaRue 112 .240 .288 .327 63 .232 .316 .398
Matt Treanor* 234 .238 .306 .301 60 .232 .318 .311
Mike Redmond 147 .237 .299 .289 57 .289 .345 .361
Jose Molina 155 .217 .292 .268 51 .235 .277 .332

The Phillies will therefore be probing free agency for a solution. And as it happens, this year offers a pretty good crop. The table at right lists the major free agent catchers, with their 2009 and career offensive numbers, sorted by 2009 OPS+. Players marked with an asterisk did not have significant playing time in 2009 and are shown with their 2008 numbers.

Obviously offense will not be a priority in finding a backup catcher solution, and Ruben won’t be willing to drop a lot of money to fill in this slot. It’s still worth taking a look at the most valuable options. Miguel Olivo leads in OPS+, but there are some caveats – Olivo probably has a shot at a starting job on some of the teams more desperately in need of a catcher, probably wouldn’t be keen on signing as a backup, and in any case will want starter money. Besides that, his OPS is very SLG-heavy, and the Phillies would benefit from having a bench player and second string catcher that can get on base at a reasonable clip.

Zaun or Ausmus are probably the best case scenario acquisitions. Both might cost more than the Phillies are willing to shell out; Zaun was set to make $2 million in 2010 before his club option was declined by the Rays, while Ausmus made $1 million in 2009 and may be looking for more. If the Phillies are looking in the Paul Bako range of salary ($725,000 in 2009), Henry Blanco and Chad Moeller represent the best combination of cheapness and production. Blanco made $750,000 last year. Moeller had his $850,000 2010 option declined by the Orioles, who are now trying to bring him back on a minor league contract, so a major league backup role would probably convince him to sign relatively cheaply.

We shouldn’t rule out the possibility that the Phillies will elect to bring back Paul Bako on the cheap. This slot is mainly for giving Ruiz the occasional off day, and for insurance in the event of his injury. Whoever is signed will not see many pinch hit opportunities unless the situation favors leaving him in for the remainder of the game. The offensive output of the bench will primarily depend on the other position players brought in alongside Ben Francisco and Greg Dobbs.

November 16, 2009

A Good Day

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , — sometimesphylan @ 6:38 pm

Scott Lauber, via Twitter, brings an early Christmas present:

Eric Bruntlett, John Ennis, Tyler Walker, Paul Hoover, Andy Tracy have been removed from #Phillies’ 40-man roster and will be free agents.

Emphasis mine. Go ahead, I’ll give you a minute:

Not that this is at all unexpected, but it’s nice to have some finality in saying goodbye to the most futile offensive force on the Phillies since . . . I don’t know, Dale Sveum? Suggestions are welcome. Anyway, Bruntlett is gone, and here is a rear-view mirror look back at his brief Phillies career, for those fortunate enough to be in the getaway car. In two seasons with the Phillies, from 2008 to 2009, The Bearded Wonder posted a .202/.273/.278 line for the Phillies with 2 home runs. Over that same period, out of all players with at least 250 plate appearances:

  • Eight players had a lower on base percentage
  • Two players had a lower slugging percentage
  • Only one player, Corey Patterson, had a lower OPS+ (Bruntlett: 44; Patterson: 42)
  • 138 players had a higher batting average than Bruntlett’s slugging percentage
  • 10 players had a higher slugging percentage than Bruntlett’s OPS
  • 15 players had less total bases

If you made a team whose offense was comprised entirely of 2008-2009 Bruntletts, along with average pitching and average defense, they would’ve went 73-251 over those two seasons. Only four players in 2009 with at least 100 plate appearances had a lower run value per 100 fastballs seen. There were 16 pitchers in 2009 with at least 40 plate appearances that posted a higher OPS than Bruntlett. I think you get the idea. If you ever doubted the value of “addition by subtraction,” watch the revamped 2010 Phillies bench next season, and keep in mind the most important subtraction of all.

November 12, 2009

Rumor Mill Snippets

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , — sometimesphylan @ 8:25 pm

Third Base

According to Jim Salisbury, “people who have spoken about the subject” with Ruben Amaro believe he is zeroed in on either Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa, or Placido Polanco for the vacant third base spot. Figgins and Tejada appear to be on the periphery at the moment; for Figgins, at least, the issue appears to be cost – he may want as much as $10 million a year for a longer term than the Phillies would like. I have to reiterate that Beltre seems like the best option of these. His offense is likely to rebound from an injury-hampered season to something that is an unquestionable improvement over Feliz, and his glove is one of the best in the MLB. Polanco is a former Phillie second baseman, traded to the Tigers in 2005 when Chase Utley began his ascension. He should have no problems moving to third base – in his 322 career games played at the position he’s managed a UZR of 9.9. He hit .285/.331/.396 in 2009 with 10 home runs (compare to Feliz’s 2009: .266/.308/.386 with 12 home runs). Bill James projects Polanco to hit .296/.343/.403 next year, although his projections tend towards the optimistic. Mark DeRosa, with the Indians and Cubs in 2009, hit .250/.319/.433 with 23 home runs, but has struggled at third base in his career, posting a -6.5 UZR in 311 games.

Bullpen

The only bullpen name the Phillies have been linked to specifically so far has been Fernando Rodney, and I have to wonder why. Rodney simply isn’t the caliber of help that the bullpen needs right now. He posted a 4.56 FIP last season in 75.2 relief innings, and walked almost 5 hitters per nine innings. That’s questionable for any relief pitcher, never mind one coming to a Phillies bullpen that walked 4.08 hitters per nine innings in 2009, good for 9th in the MLB. No thank you. Buster Olney did write on ESPN Insider that “The expectation among some rival executives is that the Phillies will be aggressive in signing a set-up man/closer safety net” with Brad Lidge’s health and effectiveness in question, but then again, Rodney’s name is mentioned right after that, and I don’t consider that aggressive, so who knows (thanks to The Sound of Philly for catching that quote).

Utley Snubbed Again

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , — sometimesphylan @ 2:52 am

The 2009 Gold Glove winners were announced today, with a fresh batch of choices to gripe about. There isn’t one, consolidated defensive statistic to rely on (although there may soon be), but every year the selections seem to diverge wildly from the candidates that most of the defensive analytical tools indicate are most deserving. The reason for this is the selection process itself. The managers and coaches of the 30 MLB teams vote on the recipients, and the deliberation itself is not exactly top notch:

Let’s just say I wasn’t impressed with the depth of knowledge of the coaches when it came to evaluating the candidates and coming to a conclusion. They’d pretty much blurt out the name of a guy that they remembered as making some good plays against them (often asking a fellow coach what he thought, and coming to a consensus opinion that way), or pick the player that had the reputation as being the best at his position, even if that reputation was no longer deserved. I’m pretty sure my team wasn’t the only one that operated this way, which explains how Rafael Palmeiro was voted Gold Glove first baseman in 1999 despite playing just 28 games at first base. Reputation and name recognition played a huge role in the voting, as I saw it first-hand.

National League
Pos UZR Leader UZR GG Winner UZR
1B Derrek Lee 4.7 Adrian Gonzalez 3.4
2B T-Utley/Sanchez 11.3 Orlando Hudson -3.7
SS J.J. Hardy 8.8 Jimmy Rollins 2.9
3B Ryan Zimmerman 20.1 Ryan Zimmerman 20.1
OF Nyjer Morgan 35.8 Michael Bourn 8.7
OF Randy Winn 20.1 Matt Kemp 3.2
OF Colby Rasmus 13.7 Shane Victorino -4.2
American League
Pos UZR Leader UZR GG Winner UZR
1B Kendry Morales 5.0 Mark Teixeira -4.1
2B Placido Polanco 11.0 Placido Polanco 11.0
SS Cesar Izturis 14.1 Derek Jeter 8.4
3B Adrian Beltre 21.0 Evan Longoria 19.2
OF Ryan Sweeney 27.6 Ichiro Suzuki 11.3
OF Franklin Gutierrez 27.1 Torii Hunter -2.1
OF Carl Crawford 17.5 Adam Jones -4.1

That’s Larry Stone, who was in charge of collecting the votes from the Giants organization in the 90s. It’s safe to say that the Gold Gloves are awarded based on a mix of reputation, anecdotes, and gut instincts. So it was probably silly of me to expect too much this time around, and the selections still fell short of my low expectations. At left, I’ve listed the UZR leaders of the infield positions along with the Gold Glove winners, as well as the top 3 outfielders and Gold Glove winners, and all of their UZRs. As I said, UZR is not the go-to defensive statistic, because there isn’t one, but this gives you a pretty good idea about what the really odd choices were.

As far as I’m concerned, Utley and Gutierrez were the biggest snubs here. I realize Utley was tied with Sanchez in UZR, but there is a little more history in Utley’s case. Specifically, he’s been far and away the best defensive second baseman, and, in fact, the best overall fielder by UZR for the last three years. In that period he’s saved 54.8 runs above the average defender. That’s about 5.5 wins above average with his defense alone. Further, the Fielding Bible’s +/- statistic marks Utley as the best defensive second baseman for the periods 2006-2008, 2005-2007, and second best from 2004-2006. That reign of absolute defensive greatness has netted him zero Gold Gloves.

Of course, this is just one entry in the encyclopedic tome of ways that Chase Utley has been overlooked, disrespected, and otherwise snubbed by baseball and baseball media. In the last five years, combining all of his defensive and offensive contributions, he’s been worth 38 wins over replacement, second only to Albert Pujols. His bat and glove have consistently been the best at his position, and yet he’s never finished higher than 7th in the MVP voting. All he’s managed are All-Star appearances and some Silver Slugger awards. It’s almost heartbreaking to see one of the best players in baseball be overshadowed by lesser players in his own infield, while maintaining his own unwavering humility. If we’re to take any hints from how the mainstream sports media has regarded him, this is a complaint that Phillies fans will be revisiting for the rest of his career.

I don’t mean to act like Utley was the only oversight here. The table speaks for itself. Longoria and Gonzalez weren’t bad picks; as I said, UZR is not the final word, and those two had great defensive seasons by all of the metrics. But the mere selection of guys like Adam Jones and Torii Hunter is pretty mind-boggling, and the omission of, for example, Nyjer Morgan, is glaring. Internet baseball fans will always find some award or other to wring their hands about, but given the import that the Golden Gloves have when it comes to more important things like Hall of Fame voting and contract incentives, the MLB has an obligation to find a more accurate system of selection.

November 11, 2009

Offseason Bullet Points

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , — sometimesphylan @ 3:07 am

Chan Ho Park

Role IP K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 FIP WPA
Starter 33.1 5.67 4.59 1.24 1.35 5.59 -0.85
Reliever 50.0 9.36 2.88 3.25 0.00 2.10 1.56

What looked like a nightmare starting pitching pick up for the Phillies at the beginning of the season turned into one of their most reliable relievers down the stretch. With more than 3 runs difference between his starter and reliever FIP, it’s clear that something about starting – facing the lineup multiple times, losing effectiveness to fatigue, or some other mix of factors – makes him much more suited to relief. Given that upgrading the bullpen will be a big priority this offseason, getting Park back at a reasonable expense should be a priority. Unfortunately, today came this rather discouraging quote from the korea times:

Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Park Chan-ho of South Korea said Tuesday that he wants to play as a starter for a strong team to win the World Series next year.

“I want to be a starter, the hero of the game who takes full responsibility,” Park was quoted as saying by Yonhap News Agency at a press conference in Seoul after returning home two days after the World Series.

“I need a favorable environment to play better. I put priority on a team which has a good atmosphere, gives me a starter role and can advance to the World Series.”

The Phillies can definitely give him a shot at a World Series appearance, but a starting role is not in the cards. Putting aside his abysmal performance as a starter, the rotation is going to be filled out with some combination of Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, J.A. Happ, Joe Blanton, and either Kyle Drabek or some other cheap fifth guy, in all likelihood. Park is very valuable to the Phillies in the bullpen, and entirely without value as a starter.

Rest of the Bullpen

Let’s assume for a moment that the Phillies do manage to bring Chan Ho Park back. That leaves him, Ryan Madson, Brad Lidge, and J.C. Romero as the only locked-in relievers for 2010. Chad Durbin, Jack Taschner, Clay Condrey, and Tyler Walker are all due arbitration. Scott Eyre is a free agent. Of these, Taschner and Walker are probably gone. Ruben has said that re-signing Eyre will depend on the outcome of his impending shoulder surgery to remove a loose body. The team might consider a contract or arbitration for Durbin and Condrey. If they do, that still leaves 2 or so bullpen spots to fill, whether internally or from elsewhere. Sergio Escalona is one internal option. Though he wasn’t given many opportunities last season, he did post a FIP of 3.39 in 13.2 innings. I’d like to see him grab a spot.

Acquiring another top-tier reliever is also preferable, particularly considering how questionable Brad Lidge’s effectiveness is going forward. There isn’t really a bevy of free agent choices, unless you count some possibilities like Joe Beimel, LaTroy Hawkins (who is a Type A), or Jason Isringhausen. Not too appealing. Rafael Betancourt is a very attractive option, but he’s a type A, and is likely to be offered arbitration by the Rockies if they can’t reach a deal. More preferable would be working out a trade for someone like Joakim Soria or Joe Nathan, but their availability and Ruben’s willingness to give up the required pieces remain to be seen.

Third Base

The Phils made the right move by declining Pedro Feliz’s $5 million option. His defense was great, but if you compare his UZR in the last 3 years to the previous seasons, you’ll find it’s on a steady decline. And there is nothing to say about his bat other than that it was a black hole in the lineup. The Phillies may still bring him back if he’ll agree to something cheaper than what his option is worth, but that seems doubtful at this point.

Player AVG OBP SLG HR BB/K UZR/150
Adrian Beltre .265 .304 .379 8 0.26 13.9
Chone Figgins .298 .395 .393 5 0.89 8
Mark DeRosa .250 .319 .433 23 0.39 -6.5
Miguel Tejada .313 .340 .455 14 0.40 x

The question remains, then, of who to replace him with. There is an unusually high amount of options in this year’s free agent class. At right, the best candidates are listed with their 2009 offensive numbers and their career UZR-150 – a measure of the runs they’ve saved with their defense at third.

I would be thrilled with Figgins if possible, but Beltre is perfectly acceptable. The former has acceptable defense, but will see a bit of regression on offense this year, having benefited from a BABIP that was 14 points higher than his career average. Beltre was hampered by injury last year, so expect his offensive numbers to improve from what was a down year for him. In addition, he has what is widely regarded as the best third base glove in the majors. He will, in all likelihood, be significantly cheaper than Figgins. Note the ‘x’ for Tejada’s UZR. His name had been thrown around the early discussions about third base options for the Phillies, so I put him in the table before realizing he’s never actually played a game at third. Shortstops can usually transition to third base pretty easily, though. The issue with Tejada is that, for the salary and compensation draft picks he would cost, the Phillies might as well go with Figgins.

Right now it’s tough to say who is in the lead. Jon Heyman tweeted today that the Phillies are “seriously considering” Figgins, but that could mean any thing. This will probably be the highest profile story of the 2009-2010 offseason for the Phillies, and odds are I’ll be updating it frequently.

Starting Rotation

There isn’t really much to talk about on this front. Joe Blanton is due arbitration and will likely be offered that or a modest contract. Hamels, putting aside a few ridiculous rumors, will not be traded, and he will recover in a big way in 2010 when his BABIP and HR/FB ratio normalize to his career marks. Lee and Happ aren’t going anywhere, although you can expect Happ to look a lot more like a 4th starter when his BABIP returns to normal (take a look at my previous post on the subject).

That leaves only the fifth spot in limbo. There’s really no need to make some big moves here. Kyle Drabek, the 2nd ranked Phillies prospect by Baseball America, is on the verge of being major league ready. He may be ready to pitch at the highest level as early as June or July. Until he is, some combination of Kyle Kendrick, Antonio Bastardo, Andrew Carpenter, or some cheap low-level starter available in free agency will be perfectly serviceable, especially considering the talent at the top of the rotation.

That covers the most important of the offseason storylines that will dominate Phillie discourse (and this blog), which is what I wanted to do with this post. If you want something more comprehensive, I recommend taking a look at this post from the Phrontiersman. It is a complete and very reasonable blueprint for a successful offseason.

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